🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

But the latest competition is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent strugglers improving together. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still