Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
